Another look at the EU’s problems with Greece

The European Union vs. the Eurozone

Speaking in the most general terms, the EU is the post-WWII federation of European (including the UK) nations with three main objectives:

1.  promoting closer social, cultural and political integration, in order to deter future pan-European warfare;

2.  encouraging faster economic growth, and the development of large-scale European-owned enterprises that would have the size to compete in an increasingly global world (read: to counter developments in the US), and, at the same time

3. preserving national political institutions (because no politician wants to give up his job).

The Platinum Elite form of membership in the EU is to be part of the Eurozone, meaning adopting the € as a currency and becoming subject to the monetary policy determined by the European Central Bank.

qualifying for the Eurozone Continue reading ‘Another look at the EU’s problems with Greece’

I’ve updated Current Market Tactics

Here’s the link-or you can just click the tab at the top of the page.

More hedge fund fudging

BlueBay Asset Management is a “leading specialist manager of fixed income credit” for “institutional” investors, based on London.

According to an article in the Financial Times yesterday, the former manager of the firm’s emerging markets fund (since shut down) has been disciplined for deliberately misstating the price of securities in his portfolio during the summer and fall of 2008.  Apparently, the manager got prices from one or more of his brokers, went into his office, altered the figures to provide a more favorable picture, and passed the “enhanced” numbers to his back office for processing.  According to the FT he then lied to regulators when they came to investigate.

The penalty for doing this?–a lifetime ban from the investment management industry and a fine of £$200,000 (less a 30% discount for prompt payment).

Does this episode sound as weird to you as it does to me?  How so?

1.  In dealing with a long-only manager, standard procedure for institutions is to have a custodian for their funds who’s separate from the asset manager and who prices and reports performance directly to the client.  It sounds like this didn’t happen here.

Maybe this preserves the hedge fund mystique.  It certainly prevents the client from seeing that the high-fee manager and the conventional one may have basically the same holdings, and in the same proportions.

2.  What kind of institution would allow this.  Maybe, BlueBay has a very broad idea of what an “institution” is, since this not getting independent pricing sounds more like the behavior of an inexperienced high net worth individual.

2.  Who prices internally any more?  Twenty-five years ago, it was common in the US for smaller asset management companies to price portfolios themselves.  But the junk bond crisis of the late Eighties brought home that the potential liability from doing this with illiquid assets was too great.  Yes, asset managers still run their own pricing, but as a check on the official pricing done by the custodian or third-party pricing service.

3.  No sane portfolio manager wants to be a key element in the process of pricing his own portfolio.  There’s no upside.  The only thing that can happen is bad–questions after the fact about the accuracy of the pricing.  It doesn’t matter whether the prices are alleged to be too high or two low.  Someone buying the portfolio is disadvantaged in the first case, a seller in the second.

It’s true that third parties don’t always do a stellar pricing job.  I had a custodian once (a famous firm on the East Coast of the US) who kept mixing up Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollars.  Depending on which currency they would input for my Singapore holdings, the value could swing by 50% from day to day.  The firm was also not very good at first in accounting for Asian stock splits.  But the reconciliation of the manager’s records with the custodians will find and fix problems like this.  And over the years pricing services, at least for equities, have gotten a lot better.

4.  The Financial Services Authority, the SEC of the UK, took no action against BlueBay itself.  I find this strange, too.  Maybe the practice of having the manager price his own fund is acceptable in the UK.  It may well have been permissable in the US at one time.  But it hasn’t been for at least twenty years.  I think in New York the firm would be found negligent for failing to have even elementary, easy-to-implement procedures–like having the trading desk or the back office get the price quotes directly–to avoid this conflict of interest.

Stock markets in developing countries (IV): what you can do to add value

The easiest and safest way to invest in emerging markets is to buy a broad index fund or ETF that covers these markets.  But if you are willing to do some work, there are four things I think you can do to to focus your money on potentially higher return areas.  All contain some risk and require that you not simply buy and forget but continue to monitor your investment regularly.   You may also find yourself limited by your broker’s ability to transact in certain areas (can you buy, and, more important, if you change your mind, can you get out).

The four are:

1.  focus on healthy countries. Stable, foreigner-friendly, government is the first requirement (leaving out places like Venezuela).  Ideally, the government budget should be balanced, or close to it.   The stock of government debt, as a percentage of GDP, should not be rising rapidly.  The country should generate enough foreign exchange through exports to comfortably cover its foreign debt service.  Imports should be mostly machinery or other items to help build up the country’s industrial base–not consumer items like TVs.  (By the way, on these criteria, except for stable government, the US and the UK would flunk the emerging markets investment test.)

2.  use the export-oriented manufacturing development model. Successful developing countries have, by and large, grown by encouraging technology transfer in support of export-oriented manufacturing.  This means the country invites foreign firms to set up manufacturing bases within the country, so the local workforce can develop their skills.  To do this, the country must offer electric power, communication, fresh water, a road network and ports.  In developing countries, these are all growth industries.

3.  reach in to the developing country indirectly, through a company in a developed market that has, say, a third of its operations in the developing world.  Many western European companies, especially in consumer staples, have subsidiaries in Eastern Europe, for example.  Most former colonial powers have trading companies or telecom firms that still operate in their former colonies.  In addition to the mainland firms listed in Hong Kong, that market also has many property and trading firms with large China exposure.

The advantage to doing this is that you get Western management, whose motivations you can easily understand, plus developing market growth potential.  One thing to watch for, though–old colonial masters may not be A-listers in a former colony.  The old Hong Kong opium firms still controlled by non-Chinese are an example.

find an active manager who has a consistent record of beating the index in a given area. The Matthews China Fund comes to mind as an example.  either on a discount broker website, Morningstar, or the fund group’s website, you can see the historical record.  Make sure the same people who achieved the record are still around, though.

Macau gaming, January 2010–a chance to see two different investment universes

Yesterday morning, a European news agency reported that overall gaming revenue in Macau was up 63% year on year and 24% month on month.  This result was far ahead of market expectations.

In the US market, WYNN was up 5.9% and LVS rose 10.4% in an overall market that was up 1.4%

In the Hong Kong market overnight, the market reaction there to the same information was that 1128 (Wynn Macau) gained 2.3% and 1928 (Sands China) 4.0%, while the Hang Seng index, up .14%, barely moved. Continue reading ‘Macau gaming, January 2010–a chance to see two different investment universes’

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