For a while, I’ve been convinced that my search for secular growth consumer stories should shift from Baby Boomers–an amazingly rich lode to mine for my entire career–to Millennials.
Two reasons:
–Millennials are now more numerous than Boomers, and
–Millennials’ incomes, now only about half that of Boomers, are risng, while Boomers’ are falling as more enter retirement.
So I’ve been on the lookout for information about trends in Millennials’ consumption.
The other day I found one from the NPD Group blog.
It’s shoes!!
The average American–man, woman and child–buys 7.5 pairs of shoes a year. The business has been growing by about 3% a year since the economy’s low point in 2009. Total annual retail footwear sales in the US are now around $54 billion.
According to NPD, Millennials in the US spent $21 billion on footwear, about 40% of the total, last year. That’s up by 6% over their outlay in 2013, or triple what the industry growth was. In addition, Millennials were a bigger factor in the $100+ shoe segment, where they spent 12% more than in 2013.
Now to find a pure play.
More evidence of japanification?
Not entirely buying the shoe thesis — the average can hide a lot. No doubt a lot of Tory Burch shoes being sold but the money has already been made there.
That said, I continue to agree with the overal search.
U-haul?
Mattress companies
Zillow (you might mock the busines model, but only game in town on smartphone right now)
Restaurant delivery companies
I’ve been sniffing around RCG in Australia, though I haven’t looked at the numbers & don’t like the macro backdrop. Just a thought!