Two comments are guaranteed to send shivers down the spine of any Wall Street veteran. They are:
–this time is different, and
–politics makes a difference.
Yes, every time is different to some degree, but mostly in minor ways. By and large, next time will be pretty much the same. Also, when someone leads off with politics/possible government action as a way of analyzing stocks, that makes it clear that they really don’t have much relevant skill or information.
With those caveats, I have to say that I’m worried about the damage the US economy might incur during a second Trump term.
How so?
Yes, Trump did lower the corporate tax rate to a level in line with the rest of the world, to stop domestic companies’ migration of operations abroad.
On the other hand,
—he tried to overthrow the government after he lost the election in 2022. No guarantees a second try wouldn’t happen, either
—his response to the pandemic was denial. There’s no consensus I can see about how many unnecessary deaths this panicky non-response caused in the US, but I think it’s safe to say that the number is more than all the deaths in combat of American servicepeople since the end of WWII
–then there are the top secret documents Trump took with him when he left the White House. My concern is not that Trump pocketed them, but that the government came looking to get them back and that Trump denied he had them/hid them. To me, the search implies that important intelligence sources have been compromised and Washington was trying to find the leaks that caused this, to prevent further damage. The hiding suggests that the documents were in fact shown/sold to foreign countries. Add to that Trump’s recently having his party prevent ammunition shipments to Ukraine, opening the door for Russia to seize territory there, and the look is not one that makes me confident that the country’s welfare is Trump’s highest priority.
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