“Climbing a wall of worries” is the one I’d pick for 2025 to date. Yes, the US stock market has been a severe laggard in global terms, most of the weakness being expressed in a sharp decline in the currency (ytd, EAFE in $US is up more than twice what the S&P is).
The main issue is the most obvious–that “move fast and break things” works best for tech geniuses, not for former reality show stars.
In addition, the strategy of finding weak currency beneficiaries–that is, focusing on exporters + import-competing firms–and on what amount to special situations (HOOD being a prime example), has produced surprisingly good results, year to date.
Where we are now? As one of my years-ago bosses used to say, “trees don’t grow to the sky.” So, IT aside, it’s probably time to lighten up on ytd domestic winners. And at some point, a critical mass of investors inside the US will also begin to realize how large the obstacles to economic growth are that the administration is putting in place. So there’s a non-zero risk that domestic investors will begin to allocate a larger portion of their investment money outside the US.
For me, it’s time to shift toward value-ish names, whose main near-term virtue is that they won’t go down a lot (you can’t fill off the floor (except in the stock market).
