gray market trading

Gray market trading (or grey market, in some parts of the world) is unofficial, off-market trading in a security.  It typically occurs with equities either when official trading in the security has been suspended, or, in the case of new securities, during the period between the holder obtaining the right to the security and the time when official trading begins.

The latter case occurs frequently outside the US, where it is customary in many countries that IPOs or shares created through a rights issue do not trade for several days after they are paid for.  An analogue in the US would be “when issued” trading of a new stock created out of an already-existing parent and spun off in the form of a dividend.  In such a case the first day of trading may be a week or so after holders of the parent company stock qualify for the dividend.  The recent spinoff of AOL is an example.

The most important characteristic of gray market trading is that the official means of recording and settling a trade are not available.  In the strictest sense, the transaction cannot be completed until the official books are open, or reopened in the case of a stock suspension.  So although a broker has put together a buyer and seller who have agreed on a price, the arrangement is subject to all parties honoring their word.  Although in practice it’s unlikely, in theory it’s possible that a sharp price movement after that trade has been arranged will cause one party to “break” the trade.  In such a case, there is no practical recourse for the other party.

Because of the portfolio pricing complications that would arise from a broken gray market trade, portfolios that have daily inflows and outflows, like mutual funds, may hesitate to participate in the gray market.

Fidelity’s new international trading service

A little more than a week ago, Fidelity began a new service that allows qualified clients to trade international stocks online.  Although I haven’t used the service yet, it appears to be a substantial improvement over the company’s previous international equity trading offering, which required a call to the company’s international trading desk.  As far as I’m aware, Fidelity becomes only the second discount broker–after E*Trade–to offer a low commission, online method to buy and sell international stocks and currencies.  (The markets covered include Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Canada and most of western Europe.)

The big advantages of the new structure are:

commissions, particularly for Hong Kong trades, are a lot lower;

you don’t have to call a trading desk to place orders; and

you can hold foreign currencies in your account.

What investment conclusions can we draw from this?

1.  Fidelity must have been seeing a big increase in client demand for buying individual foreign stocks, for a long enough time and in enough volume to justify making the investment in computer systems to support the service.  Fidelity must also think that this new-found interest won’t go away any time soon.

2.  Many Fidelity customers must want to diversify away from having cash in dollars, since Fidelity is stressing the ability to hold foreign currency balances in accounts.  Of course, meeting clients’ currency needs can be very profitable.    For currency trades under $100,000, for example, Fidelity charges the spot rate +100bp.  For a retail trade, I think this is a decent deal.  But Fidelity, which can aggregate client currency orders, may be able to trade at very close to the spot rate.

3.  Clients must have been really unhappy with the former system, which other brokers still use.  I know I was.  Fidelity used to rely on US-based market makers operating through the pink sheets for trades under $50,000.   There, bid-asked spreads can be as high as 10%–in other words, as much as 10x-20x what they would be in the local markets.  I can’t imagine many clients being thrilled with this sort of execution.  And at least in part, clients would likely blame Fidelity.  (My pet peeve:  older computer systems were set up with the US stock market in mind, and with commissions figured in a certain number of cents–usually around 4¢–per share.  That would be a bargain in a place like Switzerland.  But in Hong Kong, where customs are different and important stocks can trade for the equivalent of US$1-2 per share, Fidelity’s commissions each way for a trade in the local market could amount to 4% of the principal.)

4.  The pink sheets must be vulnerable. The competition, the pink sheets, does a land office business in foreign stocks with a pretty poor product for all but the most highly liquid equities.  The new international service could be a substantial source of new customers and trading revenue for Fidelity, which gets to be a hero at the same time, for offering a far superior trading platform.

Where are people getting their information about foreign stocks?

Fidelity intends at some point to provide information on foreign companies through a third-party service, similar to what it does for the US (good luck in finding someone competent!).  Most major foreign companies have elaborate websites, where the basic facts are available, as well as IR departments able to answer at least some questions.  Local newspapers are available online.  And, of course, there’s the Financial Times.

I’ve been toying for some time with the idea of starting a service that would provide in-depth analysis and recommendations for foreign (and maybe one or two US) stocks I like.  Now that Fidelity is providing an easy way of acting in foreign markets, I’ve got to take the thought more seriously.  I’d appreciate any comments you might have.

Three ways to buy and sell

A simple idea

This is a simple but, in my experience, often overlooked idea in investing.  Let’s put aside the reasons for buying and selling and simply assume that we have decided that we want to remove one holding from our portfolio and replace it with another and that action is not time-critical. There are three ways to do this.

A simultaneous buy and sell

The easiest and least risky (assuming that the securities are liquid) is to place simultaneous buy and sell orders.  This is what I think most people do on most occasions.  But it’s not the only tactic.

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Counter-trend movements

Trends

An important part of investing is the ability to identify and exploit market trends, which I understand as being persistent movements of an individual security, a sector or an index in the same direction over a considerable period of time.  Significant recent trends have ranged from the twenty-year+ disinflationary trend that started in the early Eighties, to the rise of mobile communications networks and devices in the early Nineties, to the plain-vanilla inventory cycle that usually consists, in the US at least, of about 30 months of rising markets followed by 18 months or so of falling ones.

Counter-trend movements are normal

Trends are never one-directional.  Instead, they are punctuated by periodic counter-trend movements.  Seen over periods of, say, six months or a year, the interplay of trend and counter-trend movements are what gives markets their characteristic pattern sawtooth pattern of advance and decline.

Two types

As I see it, counter-trend movements are of two types, which I’ll call relative and absolute.

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