I’m writing this blog to help organize my own thoughts about investing in stocks, as well as in the hope of getting constructive criticism and advice about my views from readers. As long experience has taught me, investing in stocks is often a humbling experience. Even the most seasoned investors will make serious mistakes from time to time. The most meticulously crafted research can be factually incorrect or incomplete, resulting in faulty investment conclusions. In addition, new, sometimes poorly understood, economic developments can emerge, both in the markets where a given firm competes and in the wider national or global macroeconomic sphere, that can later economic prospects significanly in one direction or another. Even if research is perfect, it is often difficult to assess whether the conclusions are new and potentially valuable, or are already well-known and factored into prevailing stock prices. The cliche that the markets tend to make the greatest fools out of the largest number pf people sums up the situation neatly.
I have close to thirty years of experience as a professional securities analyst and equity portfolio manager, involved in both the US and non-US stock markets, so my opinions may have some value. Nevertheless, you should not use these opinions as the basis for your investment decisions. Before making any investment decision, you must conduct a thorough personal financial analysis to determine what investments may be suitable for you. This analysis should include, at the minimum, an assessment of your total financial circumstances, investment goals, tolerance for risk (especially for the possibility of loss), and the time, effort, and skill you are able and willing to bring to the investment process. You must also decide whether you have the skill to perform this analysis yourself, or whether you should seek the help of a financial planner or other professional who specializes in this endeavor.
For the reasons set forth above, you should understand that I am not making any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of my research. I am making no guarantee or promise about any results that may be obtained by use of my research or opinions. Nor should anything I write be taken as a recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, or investment strategy is suitable for the reader or for anyone you may share this information with.
I do not intend my blog to provide what are known as “maintenance” research services. That is to say, I cannot make any promise that I will provide updated analysis or opinions on any subject about which I may write. Although it may be clear from what I write in my blog that I no longer consider a particular security or investment theme to be viable, I assume no obligation to inform you specifically about my change in assessment.
This same disclaimer applies to any tax, legal, or insurance matter that one may interpret as advice. I cannot emphasize strongly enough that you must consult a qualified tax professional, attorney, or insurance advisor with respect to such matters.
If I write about a security, I will disclose to you whether on not I have a position in that security and, if not, whether I plan to take a position. You must not interpret the fact that I have acquired a position in a given security, or intend to acquire a position, as being a recommendation of that security, which would carry with it the requirement that I follow up and disclose to you when I may buy or sell that security in the future.