Italy has long been the weakest link among the three major continental European economies in the euro. Its economy has deep structural flaws. Pre-euro it had long been papering them over through heavy government borrowing. That allowed it to live beyond its means, protecting industries of the past and giving short shrift to future possibilities. Periodic devaluations of the lira let it continue this strategy by paying lenders back in debased coin.
Despite this checkered history, Italy became a founding member of the euro in 1999. It got in by the skin of its teeth–and that only after enacting a violence-wracked series of important reforms just in advance of the deadline. The hope back then was that once in the common currency Italy would continue down the reform path. Instead, however, it has used the privilege of issuing euro-denominated debt to resume a less aggressive version of its bad old ways. The result has been a domestic economy laden with debt, that has shown almost no real economic growth over the past decade.
The leaders of a nativist political coalition formed after recent elections have been speaking about their economic plans. Their idea is apparently to “solve” Italy’s problems by repudiating a portion of the national debt and withdrawing from the euro, presumably in order to substantially devalue a new currency.
…sounds a little like Greece, only ten times the size.
This development is, I think, the main reason the euro has been falling against the US$ since early April.
–although the new government hasn’t announced official policy, I think that what it ultimately says will be at best a watered-down version of what leaders have already been saying unofficially to their supporters. If so, we’re in early days of a looming crisis
–to the degree that professional investors hold Italian stocks, I think their reaction will be to seek safety elsewhere
–it wouldn’t be surprising to see official policy end up being something resembling Abenomics in Japan in its broad outlines. This implies the folliwing end result: a substantial loss of national wealth, a higher cost of living for ordinary citizens and protection of traditional industry/established elites from negative effects. There’s no reason to think Italy would end up any different
–it’s probably also worth noting that “protect sunset industries/stunt the future/lower living standards” summarizes the Trump economic playbook for the US, to the extent there is one. This means we can already see in Japan/Italy the trailer of a future disaster movie for the US
–What to do in the stock market? I think Italy has restored the safe haven character of the dollar for the moment. Given the distinct policy negatives in the US, EU and Japan, China is looking a lot better. Secular growth (i.e., IT) anywhere is probably safer than economic sensitivity