Update on the WYNN Macau IPO in Hong Kong

WYNN (I own the stock) has just filed an 8-k and amendments to its Hong Kong information package.

The company is now going to float 25% of its Macau operations, up from 20%, and expects to receive proceeds of up to US$1.6 billion rather than the US$1 billion it has previously forecast.

The top end of the pricing range is just over HK$10.   A first-day close of HK$13 or so would mean a market value for Wynn Macau of about US$8 billion, or just about the entire current market capitalization of the parent, WYNN.

Maybe American investors think that Hong Kong valuations of Macau are wildly overoptimistic.  Maybe they think the right price for Wynn operations in Las Vegas is zero (yes, the company may be flirting with breakeven in Nevada, but you’d think there will be a pickup in 2010 or 2011).  It could also be they just haven’t connected the dots yet–and maybe they never will.

It will be interesting to see how events play out.  For what it’s worth, I don’t think the first of these possibilities will turn out to be right.  Our next clue will come when Sinopharm starts trading.

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