Earlier this week the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) posted the total market casino “win” (i.e., the amount gamblers lost to the casinos) during July. The figures are as follows:
| Monthly Gross Revenue from Games of Fortune in 2013 and 2012 | ||||||||||
| Monthly Gross Revenue | Accumulated Gross Revenue | |||||||||
| 2013 | 2012 | Variance | 2013 | 2012 | Variance | |||||
| Jan | 26,864 | 25,040 | +7.3% | 26,864 | 25,040 | +7.3% | ||||
| Feb | 27,084 | 24,286 | +11.5% | 53,948 | 49,325 | +9.4% | ||||
| Mar | 31,336 | 24,989 | +25.4% | 85,284 | 74,314 | +14.8% | ||||
| Apr | 28,305 | 25,003 | +13.2% | 113,589 | 99,317 | +14.4% | ||||
| May | 29,589 | 26,078 | +13.5% | 143,178 | 125,395 | +14.2% | ||||
| Jun | 28,269 | 23,334 | +21.1% | 171,447 | 148,729 | +15.3% | ||||
| Jul | 29,485 | 24,579 | +20.0% | 200,932 | 173,308 | +15.9% | ||||
Source: DICJ
For the fifth month in a row, the aggregate win in the SAR exceeded MOP28 billion. For the past two months, the year-on-year revenue growth comparison exceeded +20%.
It’s a bit too early for dancing in the streets, however. A glance at the relevant date for 2012 shows that part of the apparent strength is due to the weak denominator–that is, the comparisons are easier than normal because growth in casino patronage fell off dramatically in the second half of 2012 both because of softness in the Chinese economy and the desire of big gamblers to maintain a low(er) profile in advance of the once-in-a-decade change in top leadership of the Communist Party.
Here are the 2012 figures:
| Monthly Gross Revenue from Games of Fortune in 2012 and 2011 | ||||||||||
| Monthly Gross Revenue | Accumulated Gross Revenue | |||||||||
| 2012 | 2011 | Variance | 2012 | 2011 | Variance | |||||
| Jan | 25,040 | 18,571 | +34.8% | 25,040 | 18,571 | +34.8% | ||||
| Feb | 24,286 | 19,863 | +22.3% | 49,325 | 38,434 | +28.3% | ||||
| Mar | 24,989 | 20,087 | +24.4% | 74,314 | 58,521 | +27.0% | ||||
| Apr | 25,003 | 20,507 | +21.9% | 99,317 | 79,028 | +25.7% | ||||
| May | 26,078 | 24,306 | +7.3% | 125,395 | 103,334 | +21.3% | ||||
| Jun | 23,334 | 20,792 | +12.2% | 148,729 | 124,126 | +19.8% | ||||
| Jul | 24,579 | 24,212 | +1.5% | 173,308 | 148,337 | +16.8% | ||||
| Aug | 26,136 | 24,769 | +5.5% | 199,444 | 173,106 | +15.2% | ||||
| Sept | 23,866 | 21,244 | +12.3% | 223,310 | 194,350 | +14.9% | ||||
| Oct | 27,700 | 26,851 | +3.2 | 251,011 | 221,200 | +13.5% | ||||
| Nov | 24,882 | 23,058 | +7.9% | 275,893 | 244,258 | +13.0% | ||||
| Dec | 28,245 | 23,608 | +19.6% | 304,139 | 267,867 | +13.5% | ||||
Source: DICJ
There’s a second factor that may make the recent figures more difficult to interpret–the development of the mass market in Macau. High-roller baccarat players in Macau are effectively professional gamblers. They lose around 3% of the (huge) amounts they bet. Mass market players bet far less. But they typically lose 20%+ of their wagers. As this latter segment grows, market win may accelerate for a while. I don’t think we’re at that point yet, but I don’t know.
Nevertheless, the continuing resilience of the SAR’s gambling business in the face of reports of softness in the Chinese economy is encouraging.
More on Monday.