First there was the surprise Brexit vote in the UK, after which sterling plunged.
Then there was the improbable victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, which sent the dollar soaring.
Now there’s France, where the odds of a far-right presidential victory by the Front National have improved. A competing right-of-center candidate, former frontrunner François Fillion, has been hurt by allegations that his wife and children did little/no work in government jobs he arranged for them (with aggregate pay totaling about €1 million).
If Marine Le Pen, the FN leader and standard bearer, were to win election in May (oddsmakers now give this about a 1 in 12 chance), her victory might conceivably snowball into a similar sea change in the National Assmebly election in June. Were the FN to win control of the legislature too, the party says it will leave the euro and re-institute the franc as the national currency. In addition, it intends to, in effect, default on €1.7 trillion in French government bonds by repaying the debt in new francs, at an exchange rate of 1 Ffr = 1 €.
Improved prospects for Ms. Le Pen–plus, I think, President Trump demonstrating he means to do his best to keep all his campaign promises–have induced a mini-panic in the market for French-issued eurobonds. Trading at a 40 basis point premium to similar bonds issued by Germany as 2017 opened and +50 bp in late January, they spiked to close to an 80 bp premium last week.
At this point, the conditions that would trigger a French exit from the euro and its refusal to honor its euro debt instruments seem high unlikely. Still, the possibility is worth thinking through, since the financial markets consequences of Frexit would likely be much more severe than those of Brexit.