First, let’s put yesterday’s negative price action for TSLA–down by 7%+–in context. Prior to yesterday, the stock had risen by 75%+ since the opening bell in January. So a down day–or even a down few weeks–shouldn’t come as a shock.
What happened yesterday:
–TSLA reported 2Q17 results. Profits were hurt by another production foulup–a shortage of batteries this time–that prevented the company from churning out cars at a higher rate. The good news is that the problem was solved intra-quarter and shouldn’t affect results for the second half
–TSLA also said it intends to be churning out 20,000 Model 3s a month by the end of the year and 500,000 in total during 2018
–two negative analyst reports were released, arguing that TSLA is substantially overvalued. Reasons: plateauing demand for older models, increasing competition from other auto companies and TSLA’s less-than-perfect production experience. Goldman Sachs says it now thinks the stock is worth $180 a share (down from $190 previously)
–Volvo announced it intends to become a exclusively a hybrid/electric car company in 2019; Baidu announced it will give its autonomous-driving car technology away for free in return for usage data. Takers include a bunch of other Chinese carmakers + Ford and Daimler
–I sold my last shares of TSLA at $260, based on the idea that this is the highest price I can reasonably conceive of TSLA trading at during 2018, assuming the company does indeed make and sell 500,000 cars. I guess that’s my bottom line
–the negative reports are good news in the limited sense that they imply the authors’ firms see no possibility of future investment banking business from TSLA. Maybe their negative analyst stance in the past has already ruled them out. But emphatically underlining the fact suggests to me they think TSLA needs no further funding to carry out its production plans
–the possible turn to significant profits being earned in 2018 is a mixed blessing. On the one hand, say, $5 a share in earnings for the company, with the promise of more to come in 2019 is better than the current situation. On the other, the emergence of earnings–and of a more easily predictable future–means an end to the “dream” of unparalleled riches that many early-stage-company investors routinely harbor with any of their stocks. For a certain percentage of “dream” stocks, the minute the earnings begin to arrive marks the peak in the stock price. A minerals exploration company that owns a single orebody peaking the day the mine opens is the stock example. Euro Disneyland is another.
Many thanks for the interesting post.
Is there a chance you elaborate on why you think (maybe the math behind it) 260 will be the highest price Tesla will trade during 2018?