pushing back eventual recovery in the US

Rivulets of brownish hair dye running down both sides of Guiliani’s face (‘Guiliani melting’) is the visual most in the news yesterday. Less obvious has been the stunning absence of any knowledge or skill in his recent court appearances. What I take from this is that no competent lawyer wants to be associated with Trump’s attempt to subvert the election process.

At the same time, Trump’s major priorities during his final weeks in office seems to be: spinning new conspiracy theories to aid in fund raising to fleece his supporters one more time; continuing to ignore the pandemic; and firing as many competent civil servants as he can–all, it would seem to me, to make things as difficult as he can for Biden. In other words, vintage Trump.

So, yes, we’ll have vaccines very soon. But no government work will be done for the next three months on how to get 600+ million doses distributed and administered. So recovery, which should also be just around the corner, will be, say, six months later in the US than elsewhere.

The stock market is absorbing all this negative news, not by declining–so far, at least–but by shifting back from emphasizing cyclical recovery to favoring pandemic beneficiaries. My guess is that this may continue through yearend.

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