blowout earnings, meh market reaction

The catchall, simplistic–but ultimately correct–evaluation of this state of affairs is that the market has already “discounted”, i.e., factored into prices, the favorable earnings information being revealed now.

What’s different about today’s situation, though, is that up until now market action has been strongly influenced by two reactive–not anticipatory–forces. One is ultra-fast-responding algorithms. The second is the stock market equivalent of social media influencers, appearing in forums like Reddit or as TV/radio presenters pretending to be veteran investors. Both are sets of people who are famous for being famous, not for being competent or knowledgeable about financial markets.

Is this a signal of a lasting change in market dynamics? If so, making money will likely be considerably tougher in the months ahead. More tomorrow.

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