stock questions: 4 (ii) continued

The point of my last paragraph from yesterday, which somehow got cut off (maybe I erased it) is that the US at present is a mature, non exceptional, slow-growing country.

So after we get through the current inflationary period–set in motion chiefly by external shocks–there’s a serious limit to how high interest rates can be before they begin to erode growth back toward (and possibly below) zero. My hunch is that tipping point is around where we are not, maybe a tad higher. If so, once the one-time (arguably, if not certainly) shock to prices passes into history, the Fed will likely be backpedaling from rate rises it puts in place from here. The situation only becomes more problematic if energy and food price gains begin to reverse themselves.

Leave a Reply