what actually happened in 2023:

–the US was the best place to be, with the domestic stock market making a total return of about +26%. Tech was the best place to be in the US, gaining more than +50%, with Energy and Utilities the worst–and in the minus column. The Dow was the weakest big index (no surprise), barely making it into double digits

—India was also a great market to be in, gaining 18% or so, but emerging markets overall, measured by the MSCI emerging markets ETF (EEM), barely broke even in $US

—Japan looked good, too, with results (TOPIX index–slightly higher using the Nikkei Dow) in local currency at +25%. But an 8% decline in the yen vs. the dollar reduces that to a 15% rise in US currency terms

—China, an almost universal pundits’ favorite (what were they thinking?) despite the continuing crackdown on entrepreneurial (meaning making actual profits) companies by Beijing, the massive housing/construction/banking crisis and the destruction of Hong Kong as trusted intermediary between China and the rest of the world, ended near the bottom of the pile. Shanghai was (after a currency gain) +3% in $US, Hong Kong -15%.

what the brokerage strategists are saying (as I read them):

–great year, with gains of about +20% on world stocks!!!!!

–Japan was on fire, with gains in yen of +25%!!!!

–lndia also shows how underweighting the US and overweighting Asian markets was a good idea. (No discussion, though, of any added compensation (over the return on the S&P) one should get for the risk of investing in a place with no strong securities regulator and with iffy, at best, financial disclosure.)

I’m of two minds about the market-speak. On the one hand, I think customers deserve an honest accounting. On the other, making an accurate assessment of one’s weaknesses is, to me, the first step toward improving results. Self-delusional marketing just makes it easier for you and me to continue to beat the pros. Also shows the value of index funds/ETFs in areas like India that I don’t know much about.