This doesn’t mean HOOD won’t continue to be an outperformer. It does mean, though, in my view–that further gains will most likely be driven by earnings growth rather than asset value.

My original argument for HOOD at around $12 a share was that the firm had book value of $8 a share or so (where it remains today) at a time when smaller discount brokers had been acquired by financial conglomerates for around 2.5x book. So an acquirer might be willing to pay $20, maybe a little more, for it, based on HOOD’s brand name and market positioning, even though operations were, in my view, a little on the sleazy side. In addition, catalysts for change had begun to appear. HOOD had (finally) hired a seasoned brokerage professional to get operations more in line with regulatory requirements as well as to expand HOOD’s scope. HOOD’s biggest attraction, in my mind, both then and now, is that it has a solid grip on the younger investor audience, a highly-prized segment that traditional brokers have had very little success in wooing.

HOOD is at $22.83 as I’m writing this. That puts it very close to 3x book. So the “value,” or you-can’t-fall-off-the-floor, phase seems to me to be in the rear view mirror now. That isn’t to say HOOD won’t continue to be a good stock. Rather, further gains have to come from trading and asset-gathering operations.

Personally, I’m on the fence. On the negative side, I haven’t done enough work to understand HOOD as a going concern. On the positive (for HOOD, anyway), I think that were a Trump victory to become increasingly likely as November approaches, that could easily trigger substantial capital flight from the US through crypto.