This is a continuation of my post from yesterday, in which I argued that making a large bet in an equity portfolio on the direction of interest rates is particularly unappealing in today’s market. It’s not so much that Wall Street strategists have been consistently wrong on this front. It’s partly, but not totally, that this tends to be a grand bet-the-farm move that would send alarm bells ringing extra-loudly for any seasoned professional. It’s that, in addition, the waters are, to me at least, so murky.

If one wanted to make this kind of bet through equities, the way to do so would be with financials and nosebleed-multiple stocks, both areas that are extremely sensitive to rate moves. Overweighting either would be an implicit bet on rates falling, underweighting the opposite.

It seems to me that a better strategy for today, and the one I’m following, is to assume that rates will go sideways for a considerable period. (For what it’s worth, the only way I can see rates going up is through capital flight triggered by a Trump victory in November.)

If so, portfolio management becomes a game of analyzing individual stocks and finding ones that are attractive either on the conviction that they’ll have surprisingly good earnings or that they’ve been beaten down enough that a change in direction–or any other signs of life–will cause the stock to bounce (think: HOOD).