I’ve just published my July 2024 Keeping Score, with an addendum for the opening days of August. Ex IT and Communication Services, cyclically-sensitive stocks remain stronger than would be the case if the market were really worried about recession.
I’ve just published my July 2024 Keeping Score, with an addendum for the opening days of August. Ex IT and Communication Services, cyclically-sensitive stocks remain stronger than would be the case if the market were really worried about recession.
Hi Sir. I have been reading your writings. Thanks for sharing your insights. I am not based in the US. Could you please share what do you observe in the US economic activities? Are there more signs or anecdotes of recession?
Thanks for your question. Historically, the best leading indicator for the US economy has been the US stock market, which has tended to peak about six months prior to a recession. I’m a growth stock investor, which means I’m most likely to make a mistake by being too optimistic. That being said, my reading of the current US stock market is that valuations are stretched and that’s the reason for the weakness we’re now seeing rather than that earnings are starting to deteriorate. More in today’s post. Dan