I have a relatively big, for me anyway, position in NVDA, thanks to a son who beat me over the head with the idea about five years ago. I’ve been selling a bit over the past several months based mostly on position size.
I have two contrary thoughts on the stock right now. On the one hand, NVDA has had an impressive recovery from its July-August selloff. After falling by about a quarter, the stock has rallied back to within 8% or so of its all-time high. One might quibble that volumes haven’t been as strong during the rebound as they were earlier in the year, but I still find the stock action impressive.
On the other, the stock’s dramatic rise is the product of two forces, as I see it: spectacular revenue growth (+370% yoy in the April quarter) and, at least as important in my view, the operating leverage derived from the much slower expansion (+39% yoy) of R&D and SGA expense–which resulted in a +800% rise in operating income. It isn’t clear to me that there’s a lot more operating leverage left to help fuel positive earnings surprises, though. If we’re closing on the end of that road, then we’re much more reliant on surprisingly strong revenue growth to move the stock higher. If so, does the consensus realize this?
I suspect the upcoming earnings report after the close on Wednesday will be an important indicator of how much more near-term oomph is left in the stock.