–although media voices are asserting that the selloff of the past few days is the beginning of the usual September-October market weakness, I’m thinking that it is more a reaction to the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings release. That’s because it’s too early for the fiscal yearend tax planning by mutual funds that creates the downward pressure. I’d expect, too, that as ETFs, which typically don’t have the same tax issues as mutual funds, continue to replace mutual funds, this downward market pressure will become less important as a market phenomenon. Btw, in the pre-mutual fund days, the market weakness came later in the year–because the tax year for banks and insurance companies ends in December vs. October for mutual funds.

–The NVDA release itself made explicit what could already be easily deduced from analyzing past quarters’ results–that the company’s gross margins have reached a peak at about 75%. TSMC also announced months ago that it was raising its prices.

The reaction to the release illustrates what I think is the current market paradigm–fast reaction to actuals rather than anticipation of them by veteran analysts. I can see the brokers’ thinking–analysts are expensive, quirky and a recurring cost. If AI can generate, say, 60% of the revenues good analysts are capable of, and have fewer ups and downs and cost close to nothing, then they may generate a far superior ROI.

–although I’m a growth investor, I’ve been increasingly finding myself drawn to GARP-ish (GARP = growth at a reasonable price) stocks and the occasional deeper value idea as well (I even took a small position in Intel–something I’ve since thought better of and sold the stock–recently). I haven’t set out to become defensive but my holdings have ended up that way–which is typically me semi-consciously preparing for a sideways market to come

–I’ve been spending a considerable amount of time photographing in eastern PA, where I live part-time and in a hotbed of Trump support. There are far fewer Trump signs around now than there were four years ago, though. Also, the red and blue colors on the 2024 signs seem to have faded very quickly.