I made a trip to Costco this morning.

Two things happened that I think are worth mentioning:

1. while I was listening to the radio, the talking heads on Bloomberg were discussing the performance of the US stock market so far this year. In their view, it has been stellar. And it is true that the US stock market has been up by more than most observers, me included, had expected. As I’m writing this, the S&P 500 is ahead by 12%+ ytd and NASDAQ by by 15+.

But if we look at the rest of the world, the domestic market is a distinct laggard:

—-The Hang Seng in Hong Kong is up by 32% ytd, for example, with a currency tied to the $US, so no gain/loss vs. us there.

—-The sad-sack Nikkei is ahead by 12% in yen, before a 6% gain in that currency vs the dollar ups the total to +18%

—-The Euronext 100 is also up by 12% ytd, before a currency gain of over 13% vs the dollar.

So: Hong Kong is more than double the S&P, as is Europe–which is being held back by the post-Brexit, too USA-ish for comfort, UK. Even Japan, which has demonstrated for more than thirty years the folly of restricting immigration while the overall working population is stagnating, is doing better than we are.

Put a different way: from the perspective of a foreigner, the US has been dead money this year, because you’ve lost your shirt on the currency, while the rest of the world is partying. PS.: Mexico is ahead by 26% this year, before a 16% gain in the peso vs the dollar, and oil- and gas-rich Canada is nevertheless about in line with the S&P.

I haven’t done the work that would give me numbers I’d feel comfortable showing to the world, but my very strong feeling is that in this year’s US market, the closer you are to companies whose output is sold in the US, the worse your holdings have performed. The better case, in theory, is to have costs in the weak currency/economy and sales in the strong currency/economy. Think: software made in the US and sold abroad.

2. when I got to Costco, I was surprised–shocked, actually–at how expensive the food was. …maybe 10% higher in price than a month ago. The Costco strategy, as I see it, is to sell everything in the warehouses at no profit/loss and make its money on the yearly membership fees. If I’m reading this one tiny event–and in this one store–correctly, that Costco management has decided not to sell stuff at a loss initially and then gradually raise prices back to breakeven, I saw this morning the initial impact of the Trump tariffs on food. It’s pretty bad.