I’ve just updated my Keeping Score (ii) page for last month’s stock market action.

–no September swoon. We still have a ways to go to be 100% sure, but it seems to me that the changing of the guard from mutual funds to ETFs has at the very least diminished this seasonal stock selloff, if not eliminated it entirely

–the overall pattern of the market’s movement remains what it has been throughout the year–slow domestic growth, a weakening currency and fears that Washington wants to walk down the destructive path of the 1970s by aggressively pushing down interest rates to relieve pressure on public finances. Hence, the market’s continuing preference for, and success of, the approach typically used in developing –preferring companies with dollar costs and foreign currency revenues

–it’s unclear to me what effect the shutdown will have

–I happened to see a video yesterday in which the Donald Trump of 5-10 years ago was speaking. I was struck by how witty, articulate and persuasive he was back then–and, in contrast, how Bidenesque he has become

–I’m not sure what the effect of yesterday’s meeting of the top brass with President Trump and Secretary Hegseth will be. My guess is that it has shattered any illusions that the audience may have had that either understands much about what 21st century warfare entails–and that despite the ongoing example of Russia/Ukraine.