I’m finally getting around to reading the OECD Economic Outlook published last month.

The international agency projects economic growth in the US for 2025 at 1.8%, falling to 1.5% next year. The latter figure is better than I’d tacitly been anticipated, although it is barely more than half the rate of domestic growth in the final year of the Biden administration. The main causes offered for slowdown are what I would have imagined: tariffs and shrinking of the workforce, offset to some degree by continuing strength in tech sectors.

The major plus, if that’s the right word, is that the OECD doesn’t see US GDP in the minus column–an outcome I think is at least possible and worthy of some forethought about how defensive to become if the odds of a shrinking economy increase. In any event, what seems to me to be implied by the figures is that ex tech the domestic economy will be flirting with the big goose egg.

At least some of this worry vis already factored into today’s prices. If so, it’s only something to be deeply concerned about now if we begin to hear stories of tech companies shifting some of their operations to, say, Canada or Mexico. The OECD also seems to be thinking that the oil price will be weak in 2026, something I also consider as likely–and resulting from increased production from OPEC, both from the cartel feeling the globe is flirting with peak oil use and an attempt to force high-cost non-OPEC producers to the sidelines.

A consensus also seems to be forming domestically that a mild haircut (or more) should be given to estimates of GDP damage from domestic tariffs. This is partly the argument that after headline figures are announced, subsequent negotiation generates exceptions that take some of the bite out of the levies, partly that substitution will be more important than the consensus now realizes.

Combine this with apparent OECD optimism and one can come to the conclusion that the US stock market isn’t as toppy as it appears to me. Hard to know, even though Wall Street appears to want to push stocks to new heights.