Yesterday, Secretary of War Hegseth and President Trump both spoke to a large group of armed forces senior commanders assembled in Virginia from posts around the world.

My impressions, for what they’re worth:

–neither speaker seems to have given much thought to possible lessons from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the skills that will be needed to prevail in future conflicts. Not a confidence builder to show your cluelessness to a large audience of your direct reports. This was perhaps the main take-away of the Financial Times

–one of my proudest moments as a soldier was when a veteran platoon sergeant (he was 27) remarked that he stayed in service because it was the only place in the US where he was judged by his job performance rather than the color of his skin. Sounds like the days when excelling at the job is all that matters are in the rear view mirror.

–speaking un-euphemistically, the job of the army is to kill enough people on the other side that they stop fighting. Because of this, I think nothing good can come from sending combat troops into domestic cities. At the very least, it implicitly begins to define fellow citizens as the enemy. This kind of gamification is, I think, much more dangerous than it might seem. During the Korean War, only about a quarter of US soldiers actually fired their rifles at North Korean troops. Because of this, the Army switched from using bullseye targets to human silouettes in weapons training. The percentage went up to 80%+ in Vietnam. The administration can’t not understand this–although the better case for us as citizens is, weirdly enough, that it doesn’t

–I happened to see a You Tube yesterday that contained a conversation with Mr. Trump from maybe five years ago. Trump was knowledgeable, charming, witty, and used sophisticated sentence structure. His Bidenification into what he is today–pretty much a shell of what he was back then–was really shocking to see.

I’ve just updated my Keeping Score (ii) page for last month’s stock market action.

–no September swoon. We still have a ways to go to be 100% sure, but it seems to me that the changing of the guard from mutual funds to ETFs has at the very least diminished this seasonal stock selloff, if not eliminated it entirely

–the overall pattern of the market’s movement remains what it has been throughout the year–slow domestic growth, a weakening currency and fears that Washington wants to walk down the destructive path of the 1970s by aggressively pushing down interest rates to relieve pressure on public finances. Hence, the market’s continuing preference for, and success of, the approach typically used in developing –preferring companies with dollar costs and foreign currency revenues

–it’s unclear to me what effect the shutdown will have

–I happened to see a video yesterday in which the Donald Trump of 5-10 years ago was speaking. I was struck by how witty, articulate and persuasive he was back then–and, in contrast, how Bidenesque he has become

–I’m not sure what the effect of yesterday’s meeting of the top brass with President Trump and Secretary Hegseth will be. My guess is that it has shattered any illusions that the audience may have had that either understands much about what 21st century warfare entails–and that despite the ongoing example of Russia/Ukraine.