I was reading the Financial Times late last night and found an article on Venezuela that cites Wood Mackenzie, perhaps the premier global oil and gas investment and advisory firm. WM’s estimate is that the breakeven cost of bringing a barrel of Venezuelan heavy crude to the surface is $80 or so. In other words, in today’s world where higher-quality oil (meaning less expensive to refine into salable products) is plentiful and goes for under $60 (Venezuelan crude sells for closer to $50), developing new production–or spending billions to repair old infrastructure–makes no economic sense.

I imagine this is why the US-based oil majors don’t appear to be enthused at all about the “opportunity” to develop Venezuelan reserves that the attack has presented to them. It’s also unclear if or how badly damaged the fields have been from lack of storage capacity for oil coming to the surface that the country has been unable to sell.

Venezuela does have 30-50 million barrels of oil already in above-ground storage because of the US embargo. Mr. Trump apparently intends to seize that oil and transport it to the US, where, luckily enough, one of his supporters has recently purchased three refineries configured to process heavy high-sulfur crude. Figuring 40 million barrels that would sell for $50 each, this seizure would be a $2 billion wealth transfer from Venezuela to the US. Trump will apparently control how the proceeds are used.

If media reports are correct, US forces entered Venezuela with 150 aircraft, destroyed the country’s air defenses and killed at least eighty people, ostensibly in order to serve a warrant to arrest Mr. Madero. My guess is that the operation had to have involved at least 500 servicepeople entering Venezuela. The cost? I have no idea, but it had to have easily been in the millions.