The Los Angeles-based Capital Group is one of the most important–and successful–global investment firms, with over $3 trillion under management. (I should mention that in the very dim past, Capital wanted me to interview for a job as a portfolio manager there, but I was young and stupid and having too much fun on my own, so I said I wasn’t interested. I don’t think that colors my perception, though.)
I think it’s interesting that in its low-key way the group says it’s now starting to place more emphasis on capital markets outside the US. The apparent reason: it considers potential developments in the Treasury market to be worrisome.
It seems to me that for a behemoth like Capital to be making a significant sea change like this (for the past quarter-century, all-US-all-the-time has been the key to superior investment results), the worry must be something it regards as very important and as something that’s not going to go away tomorrow.
My initial reaction is that this is all about the administration’s apparent intention to reduce the real value of government debt by creating inflation. One might think that a real estate veteran like Mr. Trump would remember the economic train wreck of the late-1970s/early-1980s that were the result of Washington’s efforts along this line back then. …apparently, not, however.
I don’t think Capital is skipping over the economic damage done to the US by the combination of tariffs and the use of ICE to shrink the domestic workforce, though. Arguably, its view is that this is last year’s problem and, while this drag on economic growth isn’t going away, the negative effects are already baked into today’s stock prices.