For some reason, I’m finding 2026 a much more confusing time than 2025. That’s as an American, as a former Currahee and as an investor. The proliferation of fake news only makes things more difficult.

For example: the attack on Iran makes no sense to me, nor does the US continuing to escalate. If true, and I think it is, that Trump cut off talks with Iran to limit nuclear proliferation at the start of his first term, arguably creating the situation he has now decided is intolerable, makes the endeavor a weird irony. Of course, Trump has also given Iran considerable extra clout by his systematic dismantling of alternate energy sources like wind. And social media are filled with comments by usually taciturn generals who have either resigned or been fired, whose point is the staggering incompetence of the political leadership waging this war.

Then there’s Congress, on both sides of the aisle, standing by and not doing anything–worried more about staying in power themselves (admittedly, for many, long past their sell-by date, this is probably front of mind) than their constituents.

I have to tell myself that when I start to work in the morning, I have to take off my hat as a human being and put on my hat as an investor.

–the stock market reality, as I see it, is that oil and gas is only a miniscule part of today’s publicly traded universe and we’re at/past peak world oil usage. Trump’s actions will only hasten hydrocarbons’ economic demise. No comfort for the war dead, but the economic reality that the war will benefit neither side

–there’s a certain irony in Vance’s trip to Hungary to try to prop up the Orban regime. I imagine that, if anything, it had the opposite effect. Still, Orban’s Hungary represents the Putinesque Christmas future that Trump/Vance seem to desire. From a stock market point of view, this has two main implications, I think:

—it gives a clear picture of Trump’s apparent goal, to turn the US into a new version of the old East Germany or Hungary, and

—it underlines the reputational damage that Trump and a compliant Congress are doing to the made in USA brand. Maybe this translates into a PE that’s 10%? lower that it would be if the firm were incorporated in, say, Canada or Mexico. And value investors have got to consider whether a foreign firm would bid for a struggling domestic counterpart, a key issue being how deeply impaired a US brand name might now be.

My latest positive thought is the play that has been going on for some time among the nuts and bolts component firms that provide physical parts needed in AI chips. DRAM makers, for example, who have been long regarded as a stodgy boom-and-bust commodity business, are now facing much larger AI demand than they can satisfy. Anyone who’s recently needed an SD card or drive knows what has happened to prices. The real issue, I think, is how long the shortage environment will last. Absent significant change in AI chip design, my guess is that it will be longer than the market now expects.

The worst place to be, I think, is in areas that serve the ordinary American consumer.

The $US is down by close to 20% against the euro since the inauguration. I don’t imagine a reversal any time soon. …the mid-term elections? If so, companies with costs outside the US and revenues inside will continue to struggle.