The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was formed in 1960. It only came to prominence in the mid-1970s, however. That’s when OPEC set production quotas for member countries–and put oil prices on the long road from a selling price of $1 or so a barrel to the current $100-ish.

Late in the last century, there was plenty of discussion about “peak oil.” Back then it meant the day when global demand would exceed the ability of the world’s oil nations to supply their black gold and would result in a sharp increase in prices. Great for oil producers, not so much for consumers.

Today, though, the term has come to mean peak demand, the time when alternative energy sources begin to replace significant amounts of petroleum.

The cartel itself can be divided into two camps, nations like Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, which have oil reserves that can continue to produce for decades and decades, and other members whose reserve lives are relatively short. The former group, which has to date dominated OPEC policy making, has a strong economic interest in keeping prices low–in order to delay the shift to alternative energy sources. The latter want the highest possible price today. They have no need to plan for the decades ahead.

It seems to me that the UAE is effectively joining the second group, which implies to me that it believes we’re now at, or past, peak oil. The trigger, I’d imagine, is the US attack on Iran, whose chief long-term result may end up being underlining the attractiveness of alternative energy sources. And although it will take some time, I imagine that leaving the cartel frees it to substantially increase its production.