more on market rotation

One or more of three things can happen when the market is finished rotating through all the possible beneficiaries, direct and indirect, from a given powerful positive economic force. The market can:

–begin the whole process of revaluing upward all the winners from the current theme. In the case of AI, this would probably start with a revaluation of Nvidia,

–move on to another big idea. This could be, for example, export-oriented manufacturing, or reignition of consumer spending or…

–assume a defensive posture and begin to sell off–beginning what market watchers euphemistically call a “correction”–on the belief that there’s nothing with significant upside potential left to buy at today’s prices.

I’m writing this about 15 minutes after the New York market open. Although one can’t put very much weight on the message from very short-term indicators, a reasonable (to me, anyway) guess is that this morning’s winners will give a useful picture of what a correction might look like.

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