I’ve updated my Keeping Score page for September and 3Q performance.

If we look at 2026 so far as a whole, that stands out to me is that two sectors, IT and Communication Services (where most of the AI firms reside) together make up 47% of the total index, according to Gemini.

In a sense, everything else is tiny in comparison. But two very small natural resource sectors, Energy and Materials, who are also big ytd winners, together also make up about 5% of the index. All this is to say that the remaining 48%, which represent the heart of the domestic economy, is significantly weaker than this year’s overall stock market strength–keeping pace with the rest of the world for the first time in this administration–would lead one to believe.

Typically, in situations like this the market has tended to experience what jargon lovers would call a counter-trend rally–where the ytd losers go up and the winners go down. No sign of this so far, though. No sign either of any takeover interest–foreign or domestic–in down-and-out domestic firms with powerful brand names and distribution networks. This is also an unusually pessimistic stance.

Still, there’s no sign I can see that the market has any inclination to change its very heavy, very successful bet (1) for AI and (2) continuance of Washington’s wildly dysfunctional handling of national affairs.

As for me personally, most of my family’s money is in index funds. I have one account I actively manage, though. Early in the year I shifted away from a heavy emphasis on mainline AI-related names to less well-known suppliers of components/services. A couple of months ago, I cut my tech overweight in half and bought industrial and service names in the US and EU. Conceptually, I’ve been wanting to get involved with beaten up low-end consumer names as well, on the idea that the domestic economy can’t be bungled much more badly than it has been and these firms have potentially valuable brand names and distribution networks (the basic Warren Buffett insight of a half-century ago). I haven’t acted yet because none of the stocks I’ve been eyeing have shown any signs of life.

I also think that the upcoming election could have a significant impact on stocks. Hard to know what that might be, however. The worst outcome for the S&P, I think, would be a vote of confidence that ICE violence, tariffs… are the way to go.