Macau gambling market results: another record high in May 2011

The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported on June 2the monthly win for the SAR’s casinos during May 2011..  As the table below shows, thanks both to a successful Golden Week and to the opening of new venues, the take was a record $24.3 billion patacas, almost 20% ahead of the previous record posted just the month before, in April.


Monthly Gross Revenue from Games of Fortune in 2011 and 2010     MOP millions
Monthly Gross Revenue Accumulated Gross Revenue
2011 2010 Variance 2011 2010 Variance
Jan 18,571 13,937 +33.2% 18,571 13,937 +33.2%
Feb 19,863 13,445 +47.7% 38,434 27,383 +40.4%
Mar 20,087 13,569 +48.0% 58,521 40,951 +42.9%
Apr 20,507 14,186 +44.6% 79,028 55,137 +43.3%
May 24,306 17,075 +42.4% 103,334 72,211 +43.1%
 Source:  Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau

The biggest winner during the month  appears to have been Galaxy Entertainment, which opened a giant new casino, the Galaxy Macau in Cotai, around mid-May.  The largest market share loser seems to have been Wynn Macau.

Reaction by Hong Kong investors to the May record  has, so far, been muted.  Several reasons why:

–There have already been a series of months of 40%+ year on year gains in casino win recently; the fourth no longer carries the same positive surprise value that the first did.

–MGM is meeting with investors as part of its IPO process, and other publicly traded Macau casino companies have been presenting at investor conferences.  So the news of a strong Golden Week and the expansion of the market due to the Galaxy Macau has already been disseminated.

–I think we’re reaching, at around 20x current year results, the limits of the price-earnings multiple expansion that the Hong Kong market is willing to permit for Macau casino stocks.  Unless/until the market changes its mind, it seems to me that no stock will trade at more than 20x, no matter what current profit growth may be.  If so, the stocks will either tread water, or move simply in line with the market, until investors begin to discount 2012 prospects.

Spring 2011 developments in Macau gambling

Three are noteworthy, in my opinion:

March market statistics

Last Friday the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macau released its report on gaming revenue for the SAR during March.  The market total was just over 20 billion patacas (roughly US$2.5 billion), a new all-time high.  It’s also up by 48% from the same period of 2010–indicating that the mainland government’s measures to slow down the economy continue to have little effect on Macau.

The revenue number can be a bit deceptive.  Customary casino accounting practice is to count as revenue the amount lost by customers, not the (much larger) amount that they wager.  Given that Macau is mostly a high-stakes baccarat market, where the win percentage averages a tad below 3%, the total amount of all bets placed in the former Portuguese colony last month was likely in excess of US$80 billion.  This suggests Macau may approach the US$1 trillion mark in amount gambled for the full year.

According to soundings taken by local magazine Macau Business, there were no dramatic shifts in market share during the month.  The Ho family’s SJM led the market with a 34% share, followed by Sands China with 16%, Melco with 14%–slightly ahead of  Wynn Macau, which also had 14%.

This news is the main reason WYNN and LVS rose sharply in New York last Friday and the publicly traded Macau casinos followed suit in Hong Kong yesterday.

the Sands China lawsuit

Last year, LVS fired the CEO of Sands China, Steve Jacobs (whom I take to be the executive Steve Wynn described in such unflattering terms in an earnings conference call last year).  Mr. Jacobs promptly sued LVS, maintaining among other things that LVS had instructed him to prepare dossiers on prominent members of the Macau government so it would be able to exert improper influence over them, if need be.  Mr. Jacobs’ allegations have sparked a number of investigations by state and federal agencies in the US.  Last Thursday, Hong Kong announced its Securities and Futures is launching a similar probe.  My instinct is that the affair will turn out to be a monumental case of sour grapes by a terminated executive.  Still, the investigations bear close watching for shareholders of either LVS or 1928.

more Ho sibling strife

This time it isn’t the children and spouses of Stanley who are squabbling with him.  It’s his sister Winnie, who maintains that her holding in the parent of SJM was illegally taken from her.  What I hadn’t realized until I read an article by Macau Business is that the dispute apparently stems from 2001.  In that year, the share registry of SJM’s parent company–that is, the physical book in which the names and ownership interests of all shareholders are recordeddisappeared.  Other than that it is the official record of who owns what, apparently it contained the only evidence of Ms. Ho’s ownership interest.  You can’t make this stuff up.