yesterday’s post: bonds
To summarize yesterday’s post, when interest rates are rising, newly-issued bonds bear higher coupons than ones issued in the recent past. Older bonds look less attractive, because they provide less return. So they have to go down in price until they’re trading at equivalent returns to new ones.
Other than inflation-indexed bonds, Treasuries have no defense against this.
What about stocks?
Here the issue is a bit more complicated.
Let’s make the useful, and more or less correct, assumption that stocks and bonds are in equilibrium before rates start to rise. If so, if bonds get cheaper, stocks will also have to get cheaper in order to compete for investor money against now-higher-yielding bonds.
This means rising rates puts downward pressure on stocks, too.
But stocks do have a defense. It has to do with why rates are rising.
In most cases, rates begin to rise when either bond investors or the Fed sense incipient inflation that threatens to erode the purchasing power of money. This is what triggers the impulse to raise rates. Since in advanced economies, inflation is always an issue of wage inflation, its early warning signs are that the economy is reaching full employment and/or wages are beginning to rise at an accelerating rate. In the US, that’s where we are now.
But more workers employed and wages rising at a healthy clip imply that consumer spending is likely to rise at an accelerating rate. This implies accelerating profit growth for, in sequence, retailers, their suppliers and the providers of capital goods to both retailers and suppliers. To the extent that a given stock market represents the local economy (which about half of the S&P 500 does), profits of publicly traded companies will start to go up at an unexpectedly sharp rate.
Rising profits create upward pressure on stock prices that serves as at least a partial counter to the downward pressure created by rising rates.
A second issue that will affect stocks directly is how the combination of inflation and higher rates affects the local currency.
If the currency falls, which is the most common case, export-oriented or import-competing companies will have the best results. Purely domestic firms, and domestic firms that use foreign inputs, will fare relatively poorly.
If the currency rises, the opposite will most likely happen.
the S&P 500 in past times of rising rates
In the US in the past, the upward pressure from rising profits and the downward pressure from rising interest rates have most often neutralized each other. There have certainly been diverse sector and industry performances, based on currency, technology, government fiscal policy and the overall state of the world economy. So there have typically been substantial outperformance opportunities even in a sideways market. But the overall market tendency in the early year or so of rising rates has typically been sideways, not down.