disappointing 4Q16 sales for Target (TGT)

TGT just announced that its 4Q16 sales (the fiscal quarter ends in about two weeks, on January 31st, which is normal retail practice) will fall below its previous estimate of +1/- 1%.  The company now figures that sales will be down by -1.0% to -1.5%.

Online sales grew year-on-year by 30%+ during November/December, while sales in physical stores fell more than -3%.

In its press release, TGT also gives a breakout by major categories.

The company doesn’t say explicitly what the split is between online and physical store sales, but a little arithmetic will will get an approximate figure.  And that’s the core of the company’s sales growth problem, in my view.

The Commerce Department hasn’t yet released its calculation of the percentage of retail sales in the US that occurs online.  We can safely assume, though, that the number–which continues a steady upward march–will be around 9%.  This is the portion of overall retail that’s growing, and carrying the waning physical store business.  The TGT online figure, in contrast, is just slightly over 1%.

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