Personally, I’m not a big Donald Trump fan.
In this post, however, I’m taking off my hat as a human being and putting on my hat as a portfolio manager to give my thoughts on how the Trump economic agenda may affect stocks over the coming months.
How I read events so far:
–the S&P 500 rose by 10% from the surprise Trump presidential victory through yearend. Leading sectors were Materials, Industrials and Energy. The three were all potential beneficiaries of the Trump platform–infrastructure spending, developing domestic energy sources and promoting domestic manufacturing
–the dollar rose by about 7% against the euro. This came from a combination of hope for accelerating economic growth, and belief that greater fiscal stimulus would allow the Fed to raise short-term interest rates at a faster-than-consensus pace
–promise to reform corporate taxes, to reduce the top tax rate from the present 35% to perhaps 20%, while eliminating loopholes. Why? The rate is unusually high in world terms and a key reason for US corporations shifting operations abroad. My back-of-the-envelope calculation is that tax reform could boost the profits of the S&P 500 by around 10%. I think it’s reasonable to assume that a large portion of this potential gain was being baked into stock prices prior to the inauguration
–stock gains, sector rotation. the S&P 500 has risen by a further 10% since January 1st. However, the 4Q16 leaders have ceased outperforming. The big winners have been IT, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary–all beneficiaries of an expanding, but not red-hot economy, and the first two with substantial non-dollar exposure
–dollar weakness. the euro went basically sideways/slightly up from early January until April. Since then, the euro has reversed course, gaining 10% vs the US$. It’s now about 8% higher than it was the day before the election. The yen is a more complicated story, because Bank of Japan policy is to weaken the currency against trading partners’. The dollar has also strengthened against the yen during 4Q16 and has weakened since. The yen is now about 6% weaker against the dollar than it was in early November.
The poor performance of infrastructure spending beneficiaries since January suggests to me that there’s little expectation on Wall Street today that Mr. Trump will deliver on his promises in this area any time soon. So not a worry.
The weakness in the dollar has two aspects:
—–it acts as an economic and stock market stimulus. For a euro-oriented investor, for example, the S&P 500 has barely moved this year. In other words, to some degree this year’s stock market rise is being triggered by the currency decline
—–it’s also a function of lowered expectations for interest rate rises in the near future.
Both indicate, I think, a tempering of 4Q16 economic expectations for the US. The fact that the dollar has basically given up its post-election gains argues that this isn’t a worry either.
Substantial tax reform would likely mean a 10% boost to S&P 500 earnings–and therefore arguably a 10% rise in stock prices. A good chunk of this potential positive was factored into stock prices, I think, in late 2016 – early 2017. The worry that Mr. Trump will not deliver on taxes may have already put a ceiling on stocks around where they are now. If concrete evidence of Washington dysfunction around the tax topic emerges, that might easily clip 5% off the current S&P 500 level.