I’ve just updated my Keeping Score page, for the first weak month we’ve had in a long time. Sector performance is not completely what I would have expected.
I’ve just updated my Keeping Score page for S&P 500 sector performance last month.
I’ve just updated my Keeping Score page to analyze the relatively benign stock price action last month, as well as to outline S&P 500 performance for 2017 as a whole.
Happy New Year!!!
I hadn’t realized how dependent I’ve become over the past ten years on the Google Finance page. Google Finance’s debut coincided closely with my retirement from my job as a global equity portfolio manager. I found that GF met enough of my personal money management needs that I didn’t miss my $26,000/year Bloomberg terminal much at all. (The ability to see a company income statement dissected in a way that revealed major customers and suppliers–and their relative importance–came to
Bloomberg later. Assuming it’s still there, that’s a really useful feature for a securities analyst.)
What I liked about the old GF:
–everything was on one page, so I could take in a lot of information at a single glance
–it contained information about stocks, bonds and currencies, so I could see the main variables affecting my investment performance grouped together
–there was a sector breakout of that day’s equity performance on Wall Street
–I could add new stocks to a portfolio list easily, and thereby be able to see what was going up/down for a large group of stocks I was interested in
–I could compare several stocks/indices on a single chart, and vary the contents of that chart–and its timeframe–easily.
The charts themselves were not so hot. But I could either live with that or use Yahoo Finance. (I have a love/hate relationship with charts, in any event. My issue is that stretching the price and/or time axes can change a bump in the road into a crisis and vice versa.)
The new Google Finance?
–All of the stuff on my “likes” list has disappeared.
–The Dow Jones Industrials–a wacky, irrelevant index whose main positive point is that it’s easy to calculate–features prominently in coverage of the US.
–The Sensex has been consistently listed as a top-five world index, even though India is an insiders market that’s extremely difficult for foreigners to access. Same for Germany, where there’s no equity culture and little of the economy is publicly listed. No mention of Hong Kong or Shanghai or Japan or (most days) the UK. Yes, the UK economy is smaller than Germany’s. But London’s significance comes from its being the listing hub for many European-based multinationals.
My conclusion: the new page has been put together by people who, whatever their tech smarts, have no clue at all about what an investor needs/wants. Its overall tone seems to be to provide information that an investor will like to hear, based on browsing history. Put a different way, the new page strives to turn users into the prototypical “dumb money.” Actually, now that I’ve come to this realization, maybe the new page isn’t so counterproductive after all. Just don’t use it.
Another good month for the S&P 500, but one in which IT trailed all the other sectors. Countertrend rally in the offing? I’ve just updated my Keeping Score page with last month’s sector performance.
I have no idea why the seasonal mutual fund-induced S&P 500 selloff hasn’t happened (so far, at least) this year. Could be this is just an instance of the adage that the market tends to make the greatest fools out of the largest number of people–namely, me. But even the best portfolio managers are wrong at least 40% of the time. Not a profession for people who desperately need to be right about everything.
By the way, another curiosity about the annual mutual fund dividend is that holders strongly desire to have a dividend, even though this means paying income tax on it–but almost no one actually receives the payout. Virtually everyone elects to have the dividend automatically reinvested in the fund. In my experience, only holders of 2% -3% of shares actually take the money. So there’s no need for the portfolio manager to raise cash.
This means the annual selloff is an occasion to do portfolio housecleaning plus optics for shareholders.
I heard an interesting radio interview of a prominent fixed income strategist the other day. He said that the reason gradual money tightening by the Fed in the US has made no impact on the bond market is that central bankers in the EU and Japan are still creating new money like there’s no tomorrow. That liquidity is offsetting what the US is doing so far to drain the punch bowl. By next spring, however, both the EU and Japan will be at least no longer manufacturing new liquidity and may be joining the US in tapering down the excess money stimulus. Once that’s occurring, we’ll see a bond bear market. At the very least, I think, that would put a cap on stock market gains. Until then, however…
September S&P 500 performance:
–I’ll post details for one month, the third quarter and year-to-date later in the week
–the biggest winners for September were: Energy +9.8%, Finance +5.1%, IT +4.5%. Losers: Staples -1.1%, Real Estate -1.9%, Utilities -3.0%. S&P 500 +1.9%.
ytd: IT +24.4%; S&P +12.5%; Energy -8.6%.
I’ve just updated my Keeping Score page for Trumpmania in November.