Employment Situation, August 2017

The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its monthly Employment Situation for August on schedule at 8:30 edt this morning.

For the first time in a while, the results were mildly disappointing, in that:

–new positions added came in at +156,000 jobs, lower than in the recent past–although more than enough to absorb new entrants into the workforce

–the past two months’ results were revised downward by a total of -41,000 jobs

–wage gains continued to show no signs of the acceleration that economic theory, and past experience, predict will happen in a tight labor market.   Wage growth remains at a +2.5% pace for the past year.

 

It will be interesting to see what Wall Street makes of the numbers.  Pre-market S&P 500 futures were trading a +5.75 points just before the release and seem to be showing almost no change as I’m writing this at about 8:40.

To my mind, that’s the right response.

However, the ho-hum attitude could easily be due to the fact that it’s the last Friday in August and all thoughts have already turned to Labor Day.  There’s also a distinct Fall feel in the air, which may be another distraction.  The Amazon-Whole Foods combination has focused a lot of stock market attention on forces of structural change that have been in motion for a decade or so but are only now coming fully into the public, and press, consciousness.  That puts them squarely (even if that’s mixing metaphors) in the wheelhouse of algorithmic traders.  Then, of course, there’s Houston and Harvey.

By the way, continuing to ramble, the way the market closes today–both overall and with individual stocks–may give some hints as to how Wall Street will react as powerful traders return to work from the Hamptons next week.

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