In an earlier post, I outlined what I saw then as differences between SARS in 2002 and the new COVID-19 in 2019.
–it appears China has mishandled COVID-19 in the same way it bungled SARS, surpressing information about the disease, allowing it to become more widespread than I might have hoped. Not a plus, nor a good look for Xi.
–if press reports are correct, the administration in Washington is ignoring the advice of the Center for Disease Control and approaching COVID-19 in the same (hare-brained) way it is dealing with the economy–potentially making a bad situation worse
I think COVID-19 will be in the rear view mirror by July–as SARS was in 2003–but the road to get there will be bumpier than I would have guessed.
–the way the stock market has reacted to the new coronavirus gives some insight, I think, into the differences between how AI discounts news vs. when human analysts were in charge.
when humans ruled
Pre-AI, analysts like me would look to past examples of similar situations–in this case, SARS.
Immediate points of difference: COVID-19 is not a unique occurrence–it’s the latest coronavirus from China but not the first so the fact of a new coronavirus should not be as shocking as the first was. COVID-19 carriers are contagious before they exhibit symptoms, so quarantine is more difficult–i.e., transmission is harder to stop. On the other hand, the death rate appears to be significantly lower than from SARS.
Two other factors: the first half of 2003 was the time of greatest medical risk; generally speaking, the stock market back then rose during that period (because the world was just entering recovery from the popping of the stock market internet bubble in early 2000; given that we’re in year 11 of recovery from the financial crisis, gains shouldn’t be anywhere top of the list of possibilities).
Obvious investment areas to avoid would be operations physically located in China or with large sales to/in China; anything travel- or vacation-related, like airlines, hotels, cruise ships, amusement parks, tourist destinations.
It’s harder for me to think of areas that would prosper during a time like this, mostly because I’m not a big fan of healthcare stocks. Arguably anything operating totally outside China and not dependent on inputs from China; highly-automated capital-intensive operations rather than labor-intensive, Public utility-like stocks.
Portfolio reorientation–becoming defensive and raising cash–would have started in early February.
the AI world
What I find interesting is that the thought process/behavior I just described only started happening, as far as I can see, about a week ago. That’s when news headlines began to emphasize that COVID-19 was spreading to areas outside China. Put another way, the selloff came maybe three weeks later than it would were traditional investment professionals running the show. In the in-between time, speculative tech stocks shot up like rockets. The ensuing selloff has hit those high-fliers at least as badly as stocks that are directly affected.
–violent, December 2018-like selloff
–recent outperformers targeted, whether fundamentals affected or not.
what to do
Better said, what I’m doing.
The two questions about every market selloff are: how long and how far down. On the first front, it seems likely that COVID-19 will be a continuing topic of concern through the first half. The second is harder to gauge. There was a one-month selloff in December 2018 that came out of nowhere and pushed stocks down by about 10%. Today’s situation is probably worse, but that’s purely a guess.
I’ve found that even professional investors tend to not want to confront the ugliness of falling markets, and tend to do nothing. However, in a downdraft stocks that have been clunkers don’t go down as much as former outperformers. Nothing esoteric here. It’s simply because they haven’t gone up in the first place.
A market like the one we’re in now almost always gives us the chance to get rid of clunkers and reposition into long-term winners at a more favorable relative price than we could in an up market. My experience is that this is what we all should be doing now. As I wrote above, my hunch is that we don’t need to be in a big hurry, but there’s no reason (especially in a zero commission world) not to get started.