today’s market

As I’m writing this at about 11:30 am est, the Russell 2000 is up about 5%, the S&P 3% and NASDAQ is lagging at just over +2%.

The trigger for this surge is the government’s monthly employment report, which shows a gain of +2.5 million jobs. The report is accurate to +/- 100,000 jobs, so it is a significant plus. Forecasters–my impression is they’re mostly trend followers, so not much use–had been forecasting another big job loss.

The big gainers so far are what one would expect. The back-from-the-dead cruise lines and air travel stocks are up by 15%+. Oils are similar winners.

I think the important names to look at on a day like this, however, are the losers. On my quote list, BYND, SHOP, ZM, and FSLY stand out. AMD, as well. This is because I think that during this rally, they will continue to lag.

From a tactical point of view, I think it’s way too early to roll out of economically sensitive stocks into lagging secular growth names. There is a second issue, though. Are these names true secular growth winners that will begin to perform again after “taking a rest,” as some Pacific Basin investors would describe their lackluster present? Or are they only winners so long as pandemic conditions persist? If the latter, we can either sell and chase the near-term winners (“chase” is almost always a bad word, but let’s not deceive ourselves about what’s going on) or we can upgrade to better secular growth names–or into a thematic ETF–while this kind of issue is being left behind. This will prepare us better for the time when secular growth comes back into vogue.

As for me, I’ve owned all of the above names at one time or another and, of them, I only hold AMD now. I’m very overweight secular growth, though, so I’m in no rush to add more. For the moment, I’m on the sidelines watching.

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