trying to move downmarket is tough–Apple vs.Tiffany and Superscope (who?!?)

going downmarket:  the Superscope example

When I got my first job as a securities analyst, rookies were assigned coverage of companies no one else wanted.  So I got a bunch of firms with bad managements, poor operating procedures and/or failing strategic concepts.  I was happy to be employed, but otherwise I was less than thrilled.  But a comment by J.L. Austin turned out to be true.  I did learn a lot more about how business works by observing things going wrong than I ever would have by watching uniformly smooth sailing.

One of my first companies was called Superscope.  The company’s claim to fame was that it discovered Sony “operating out of a quonset hut” in Japan in the late 1950s.  It obtained from the then fledgling electronics giant an exclusive license to distribute Sony’s innovative line of tape recorders in the US.  The license made Superscope a fortune.

In the mid-1960s, Superscope bought Marantz which was then an ultra high-end maker of stereo systems.

In the 1970s, preparing for the reversion of the tape recorder license to Sony, Superscope decided it would replace the lost income by launching a line of inexpensive, mass-market consumer electronics devices.   It thought it would increase the odds of the line’s success by branding its offerings as “Superscope by Marantz,” thus grafting onto its boomboxes the Marantz brand qualities of exclusivity, high quality and dependability.

As the successor company website comments, “Naturally enough, the two brands became intertwined in consumers’ minds.”

Translating this marketing-speak into ordinary language, the move completely destroyed the Marantz brand.

The appearance of low-fidelity $150 stereo systems under the Marantz name shattered the image of high quality and exclusivity that had motivated audiophiles to pay many thousands of dollars for the original Marantz systems.   As I recall, it didn’t help either that the  boomboxes were very far from best-of-their-breed.

the Apple smartphone dilemma

Why this trip down memory lane?

It’s because Apple faces a somewhat similar problem with its smartphone business, which produces half the company’s profits.

As some Wall Street analysts have been point out for over a year, the market for $600+ smartphones in wealthy countries is approaching saturation.  The as yet untapped markets are in emerging nations like China or India, where older “feature” or “flip” phones still predominate.  But if your annual family income is, say, $5000, how many $600+ smartphones can you afford.  Answer:  zero.

That’s why many phone makers are collaborating with local wireless companies to develop and market smartphones that cost $100 or less.

How can Apple compete?  Should Apple try to compete in this market segment?  The risk is that it repeats the experience of Superscope.

going upmarket is easier

Oddly, experience says it’s much easier to go up-market, although often a company will create a new, upscale brand name.  That’s what the Japanese auto companies did, for example.  Nokia, too, with its Vertu brand–which consists of making ordinary phones into jewelry with precious metals and gems.

Tiffany magic

How does Tiffany come into the conversation?  It’s the only company I know that is able to be successful both at the high end of its market (jewelry at $10,000+) and the low end (key chains and trinkets for $100-).  I don’t know how the firm accomplishes it.  I offer the example only to say that the move downmarket can be done.

LVS’s 2Q12–plusses and minuses

the report

After the New York close last Wednesday, LVS reported its 2Q12 results.  Revenue came in at $2.6 billion, up 10.1% from what the company took in during the year-ago quarter.  EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) came in at $844.7 million.  That’s $56.9 million, or 6.3%, less than during 2Q11.

EPS were $.44 for the quarter, vs. $.54 in the comparable three months of 2011.  The figures were also considerably below the brokerage house analysts’ consensus of $.60 a share.

Wall Street didn’t like this news. The stock dropped more than 5%, breaking through support levels that had held over the past year, before recovering somewhat.  This is despite the fact that LVS had already lost almost 40% of its market value during the past several months on worries that Chinese gamblers would pull in their horns as the mainland economy slows.  It also didn’t matter that the entire earnings “miss” was the result of random or non-recurring factors.

There was one piece of bad news, coming out of Singapore.  Nevertheless, I think the stock weakness was a knee-jerk reaction to the headline numbers, not a result of analysis of the facts.

details

US

EBITDA was down about $22 million year on year for the quarter, at $91.3 million.  Bethlehem, PA chipped in an extra $5.9 million (the first time I think I’ve ever mentioned this casino in a post).  Otherwise, the business was flattish.  The biggest single reason for the yoy decline was that table games players were much “luckier” than average in Las Vegas.  They lost 16.5¢ of every dollar bet during 2Q12 vs. 20¢ during 2Q11–and a normal loss rate of 21%-24%.

Macau

Revenues for Sands China (HK: 1928) came in at $1.48 billion during 2Q12, up 22.3% from the $1.21 billion in revenue posted during 2Q11.  EBITDA rose by $41.0 million, or 10.7%, yoy, to $429 million.

That came despite pre-opening expenses that were $25.3 million higher than a year ago, mostly due to the debut of the new Cotai Central casino during the quarter.  In addition, high-roller patrons of the Venetian Macao, who were unusually unlucky this time last year, turned the tables during 2Q12 and took home more than their long-term average amount.  Factoring these two influences out, I think EBITDA would have been up by 20% or so.

One more complication:  during the quarter Sands wrote off $100.8 million it had spent on site preparation at yet another potential Cotai casino location–one the government there has denied Sands permission to develop.  The combination of the writeoff, pre-opening expenses and bad luck pushed net income down by 40% yoy to $160.5 million.

Still another quibble (a minor one, in my view, but apparently more than that to the markets):  LVS opened a significant new casino in Cotai during 2Q12, but its market share for the quarter didn’t expand as much as its increase in gambling capacity.  If the situation stays that way, it’s a problem.  I think it’s way too soon to judge, however.

A final point:  some commentators have criticized LVS for continuing a pell-mell expansion in Macau despite the current slowdown.  Quite the contrary.  Earlier this month, LVS announced it had requested government permission to push back completion of its current Cotai project by three years.

Singapore

Revenue for the Marina Bay Sands was down 5.8% yoy, at $694.8 million. during 2Q12.  EBITDA was down by 18.5% at $330.4 million.  Two reasons:

–high-roller gambling was off by about 6% and those who played were unusually lucky.  About half of the revenue effect–but none of the back luck–was offset by mass market gains.

–the provision Marina Bay Sands made for questionable receivables–which means gamling credit advances to high rollers that may not be paid back–amounted to $39.9 million in 2Q12 vs. $11.4 million in 2Q11.

If there’s a worry in the 50+ pages of the LVS’s quarterly earnings release, this is it.  I’m not particularly concerned.  The provision boosts the company’s bad credit reserve in Singapore to about a quarter of the $822 million in receivables outstanding.  It comes from specific identification of gamblers who have not been paying their bills on time.  It presumably also coincides with withdrawal of credit from these individuals.  So the issue will likely gradually fade away.  It bears watching, though.

overall

LVS estimates that eps would have been $.08 higher if its luck had been in line with long-term experience.  Another $.08 would have been tacked on, save for the writeoff in Macau.  Arguably, then, Wall Street hit LVS earnings right on the nose.

finances

Yes, EBITDA is not growing like it was a year ago.  But it appears to be at least steady at close to a $3.5 billion annual rate.

LVS now has $9.4 billion in debt outstanding (offset in part by $3.5 billion in cash), with borrowing costs of around 3%.  This implies annual net interest expense of a bit more than $350 million.  So pretax cash flow is in excess of $3 billion a year–meaning that the company could be completely debt-free in two years if it were to devote all its cash flow to repaying borrowings.  Quite a change from late 2008.

To my mind, it makes little sense to repay more than minimum requirements of very low-cost debt.  In fact, at 3% the company should be borrowing more.  LVS will have capital expenditures for the coming year of $1 billion.  It will also pay out $825 million in dividends.  But the point still remains that LVS is highly cash-generative.

valuation

LVS has a market capitalization of $30 billion.  Its interest in Sands China has a market value of about $18 billion.  If we award the same EBITDA multiple to 100%-owned Marina Bay Sands as Sands China receives in the Hong Kong market, the former has an asset value to LVS of $18 billion as well.  This leaves the US operations of LVS–Las Vegas, PA and royalty/management fees from Asia–with a value of minus $6 billion.

Of course, I have been making essentially the same argument for some time and that hasn’t stopped the stock price of LVS from plunging.  What’s happened is that the Hong Kong market is now pricing 1928 at $23 a share vs $32 in April.  However, the stock is now trading at about 12x cash flow and yielding 5%.  And that’s with cash flow at, or close to, what I think is a business cycle low.

That’s way too cheap. (Remember, I own LVS.  I’d own 1928, too, but I don’t want to buy on the pink sheets and a glitch in Fidelity’s software prevents Americans from buying the stock in Hong Kong).

2Q12 for Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Wynn Macau (HK:1128)

the results

After the New York close on July 17th, WYNN reported its financial results for 2Q12.  Revenue for WYNN, which includes 100% of the revenue of Wynn Macau, was $1.253 billion vs. $1.374 billion in the comparable period of 2011.  Earnings were $139.0 million vs. $200.8 million in last year’s 2Q (before subtracting a $107.5 million charge for the present value of a planned charitable contribution by Wynn Macau to the university there).

EPS were $1.38 in 2Q12, compared with $1.60 in 2Q11.  The reason the eps comparison looks better than the net profit comparison is that the forced sale of Aruze USA’s 24.5 million shares in WYNN to the company reduced the number of shares outstanding to by about 25% 101.0 million.

The immediate reaction of the market to the results was relief that the numbers weren’t weaker than they were.  Of course, on the other hand, it’s not that long ago that WYNN was closing in on the $140 mark, as Wynn Macau received permission to build a new casino in Cotai.

details

Las Vegas

Business is up around 5% year on year, both in the gambling and non-gambling parts of WYNN’s operations.

The hotel/entertainment/shopping gain is straightforward.  It’s not so easy to see the improvement on the gambling side, however.  The industry accounting convention is not to measure revenue by the amount that gamblers bet–which was up around 5% yoy for Wynn in 2Q12–but rather by the share of that amount that the casino wins from them.

For slot machine play, which consists of huge numbers of small transactions, the odds almost always even out during a given quarter.  It’s not the same for table games, particularly for the high-roller segment of the market that WYNN specializes in.  The typical table game “win” percentage for Wynn is about 23%.  But in the June quarter of 2012 that figure was a mere 15%.  And the comparison is against 2Q11, when the win percentage was a whopping 27.6%.  The negative win comparison for high stakes baccarat was even worse.

I don’t think this is anything to worry about.  It’s just a fact of life.  Over the coming quarters, the win percentage will doubtless return to normal–and results will look more favorable than they do now.  The bottom line, however, is that the trend for WYNN’s Las Vegas operations is up.

Macau

Wynn Macau’s results are flattish.  That’s mostly because, for the moment, that market has run out of steam.

Two reasons:

–slowdown in the Chinese economy has translated into a flattening out in business for Macau casinos from mainland gamblers, and

–at the same time, casino floor space in Macau has expanded significantly as operators begin to develop Cotai.

The result is increasing, price-driven competition for junket operators to steer customers to a given casino.  Either customers are offered larger credit lines, or junket operators are offered higher commissions.  Wynn Macau’s position is strong enough that it isn’t compelled to participate.  However, until the economic environment in China improves, Wynn Macau will be doing well simply to maintain the current level of operating profit.

my take

WYNN is the strongest operator in an industry that I think has attractive investment characteristics.  On the other hand, I think LVS is the cheaper stock. And, although I have no desire to sell either WYNN or LVS (I have switched a little money from the former to the latter, however), I think all the Macau-related stocks will mark time until the Chinese market begins to pick up again–probably in early next year.

Hong Kong stocks–trying to turn up?

early signs from Hong Kong

Over the past couple of weeks, property stocks in Hong Kong are up sharply.  What makes this interesting is that in that market, property stocks and trading conglomerates (the successors to the old British opium companies) are the main ways of playing a cyclical upturn there.

economic policy stances

Describing the present situation in world markets in the most basic terms, we might say that the US and the EU are trying to deal with structural problems that are being made somewhat worse by a cyclical downturn in trade with emerging markets.

China, on the other hand, is dealing with a cyclical domestic downturn induced by government policy, which also is being made somewhat worse by the structural issues its Western trading partners are facing.

The US adopted an accommodative money policy years ago to address its problems, but appears unable so far to make any supportive fiscal changes.  The EU is very belatedly beginning to move on both fiscal and monetary fronts.

China has recently begun to reverse its restrictive interest rate regime, as its economy has begun to slow markedly.

China’s moves already making a positive difference?

That’s what the stocks of Hong Kong property developers appear to be saying.  It’s possible that property stocks are only moving in anticipation of future economic growth and not in reaction to the first stirrings of that growth itself.  My hunch is that the latter is the case, because I don’t read any world markets as being confident enough to act on policy changes alone.

Nevertheless, it’s still early days–too early for all but the most aggressive investors to act.  But the property stock movement does bear watching.  If Beijing’s policy efforts are already beginning to kindle even a mild cyclical upswing in the Chinese economy, there are two positive implications for equity investors.

–Hong Kong stocks, and especially pro-cyclical, China-related sectors like property, would continue their recent outperformance for a considerable time to come, and

–companies listed in other markets which have important China exposure and which have been languishing recently–luxury goods makers, for example–would likely become attractive investments again.

China is revamping its QFII program. That’s good news, and bad.

what QFII is

The acronym stands for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor.  It’s the general name for any formal system for limiting foreigners’ access to domestic capital markets.

QFII arrangements are par for the course in emerging markets. They work as follows:

–A foreign investor applies to the government for permission to enter the market.  The application process itself can be complicated and time-consuming, and acts as a filter to weed out the less resolute.

–The foreigner must typically have a certain length of experience in the asset management business and a certain minimum amount of assets under management.

–A successful applicant is subject to a number of constraints.  Typically, he is given an investment quota,  a specified amount of money that must remain in the country.  Minimum holding periods for any securities purchases may be specified.  Certain industries may be off-limits.  Individual and aggregate maximum levels of foreign ownership of given enterprises may also be specified.

In China’s case, the QFII program has been in place for almost a decade.  QFIIs must have been in business for at least five years, have a clean regulatory record in the markets where they already operate, and have a minimum of $5 billion in assets under management. Foreigners can only buy equities.  In the aggregate can’t own more than 20% of a domestic company’s stock. Until this April, the maximum investment quota for any QFII was $30 billion.

why restrict foreign access to markets?

Every country in the world limits foreign access to capital markets in one way or another.  Control of companies thought vital to the national interest–transport, telecom and media are the usual suspects–is almost always legally barred to foreigners.

Bids in non-vital sectors are also often subject to government regulatory review. These cases often express the national ego rather than economic sense.   It isn’t that long ago, for example, that France disallowed Pepsi’s bid for Danone on the grounds that the yogurt company is a national treasure.  Mainland Chinese companies have extreme difficulty in getting government approval for purchases in the US.  In the early 1980s Washington rejected Fujitsu’s bid for Fairchild Semiconductor, on the grounds that a foreigner shouldn’t control a defense-related manufacturer–but then approved its sale to a French firm, Schlumberger (the purchase worked out very badly, by the way).

Emerging countries have more genuine worries.

–They fear that without ownership restrictions wealthy foreigners will buy the crown jewels of the local economy at bargain-basement prices.  Foreigners have more money.  And they may understand the long-term potential of companies better than locals.

–Emerging nations also have a vivid example of the risks in having open markets that occurred during the Asia financial crisis of the late 1990s. At that time, hedge funds tried to destroy the perfectly healthy Hong Kong economy through massive shorting of the currency and of the local stock market.   It took the deep pockets of mainland China plus the Hong Kong government’s purchase of a quarter of that market’s outstanding shares to see off the threat.

changes to the China system

In April, the individual QFII investment quota was raised from $30 billion to $80 billion.

This week, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed further loosening of the rules:

–the minimum assets under management would be lowered from $5 billion to $500 million, thereby allowing many hedge funds to enter the market for the first time

–the cap on aggregate foreign ownership of companies would be raised from 20% to 30%, and

–in addition to equities, QFIIs would be allowed to buy bonds and stock index futures.

this is good news…

…because it represents another step in opening the capital markets of the world’s second-largest nation to economic forces, rather than simply local vested interests.

…and bad

Invariably, countries take measures like this when they feel the local market needs the inflow of funds that foreigners can provide.  It’s typically during weak economic times when the local government senses that domestic investors are much more likely to be sellers of local securities than buyers.

So while the moves by Beijing should be welcomed by long-term investors, they also seem to me to signal that tough sledding is ahead in the near term for holders of Chinese A shares.  For most of us, who are presently excluded from the market anyway, the relevant information is confirmation of what we have most likely already suspected– that corporate profit announcements from China over the next several months will likely be much poorer than the consensus is expecting.