I read an odd article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday, an opinion piece that in the US bonds are a current threat to stocks. Although not explicitly stated, the idea seems to be that the US is in the grip of cult-like devotion to stocks. One day, however, after a series of Fed monetary policy tightening steps, the blinders we’re wearing will drop off. We’ll suddenly see that higher yields have made bonds an attractive alternative to equities …and there’ll be a severe correction in the stock market as we all reallocate our portfolios.
What I find odd about this picture:
–the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is just about 2%, which compares with the yield of 2.3% on a 10-year Treasury bond. So Treasuries aren’t significantly more attractive than stocks today, especially since we know that rates are headed up–meaning bond prices are headed down. Actually, bonds have been seriously overvalued against stocks for years, although they are less so today than in years past
–from 2009 onward, individual investors have steadily reallocated away from stocks to the perceived safety of bonds, thereby missing out on the bull market in stocks. If anything there’s cult-like devotion to bonds, not stocks
–past periods of Fed interest rate hikes have been marked by falling bond prices and stock prices moving sideways. So stocks have been the better bet while rates are moving upward. Maybe this time will be different, but those last five words are among the scariest an investor can utter.
Still, there’s the kernel of an important idea in the article.
At some point, through some combination of stock market rises and bond market falls, bonds will no longer be heavily overvalued vs. stocks and become serious competition for investor savings.
Where is that point? What is the yield level where holders of stocks will seriously consider reallocating to bonds?
I’m not sure.
Two thoughts, though:
–I think the typical total return on holding stocks will continue be around 8% annually. For me, the return on bonds has got to be at least 4% before they have any appeal. So the Fed has a lot of interest-rate boosting work to do before I’d feel any urge to reallocate
–movement in yield for the 10-year Treasury from 2.3% to 4.0% means that the price of today’s bonds will go down. So, while there is a clear argument for holding cash during a period of interest rate hikes, I don’t see any for holding bonds–and particularly none for holding bonds on the idea that stocks might fall in price as rates rise
Of course, I’m an inveterate holder of stocks. And this is an interesting question to ask yourself. What yield on bonds would make them attractive to you?